AI’s inconvenient truth – Rethinking The Hype Cycle #9

We're co-dependent. AI still need those pesky humans

AI-generated image: Runway

Hello👋

Welcome to Rethinking the Hype Cycle, your people-first practical guide to AI and what's next in tech.

AI is changing how we work. But it's not changing as fast as some with vested interests claim. Dig in for some research on productivity that counters AI's smoke and mirrors hype.

Your regular reminder: If you're not working on the bleeding edge, you don't need to bleed. On to the trends. 👉

🔮AI and frontier tech trends

AI is slacker than first thought

AI productivity in reality: A Denmark study shows AI adoption resulted in a measly 3% efficiency gain per worker. And only a sliver of that led to any financial gains. That’s less gain than banning one afternoon smoking break. Other studies at the organisational level show far better results, but there's merit in an aggregate study like this.

When you set expectations and goals for your AI adoption programme, remember AI hype is all mouth, no trousers. Set incremental goals to track and measure output based on the needs of your team, individual and organisation.

Meanwhile, Microsoft research shows we've tripled the time we spend in meetings since the pandemic. Fix this before expecting AI to wave a magical productivity wand?

"It sometimes seems as if the modern worker spends more time talking about work than actually working." 😐

New reports: AI is both hurting and helping your job

A new UN report shows women face three times the likelihood of AI automating their job than men – more in wealthier countries. I've written about the gender AI gap before, but each new data point reveals a greater chasm.

The AI gap is the new pay gap we need to talk about. We need to take action now, not in 6 months' time.

In more positive news, a new PwC report busts myths that AI is taking our jobs: AI-enhanced workers add more value and get paid more. High AI-uptake industries are growing headcount, not culling. But the harbinger bell tolls: there's more data again that women's roles are overexposed.

AI may not be as bad as we thought

More good news: AI models may not be as environmentally harmful as previously thought.

"A standard text-based search with ChatGPT still uses a tiny amount of energy. We’re not going to make a dent in climate change by stigmatising it or making people feel guilty."

While it's true that the principal large language models aren't as efficient at processing data as web search tools, they are improving. Also consider that searching for lots of content on the web, which involves your browser downloading web pages and images, could be more inefficient than getting a neat info package directly from an AI model.

Otterly versatile: The history of AI image generators

Sea otter with mohican, an AI-generated image by Ethan Mollick

Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick has repeated the prompt "otter using WiFi on a plane" over the last three years. His gallery shows the rapid evolution of AI image generators. It's shifted from fuzzy pixels like an amateur sand sculpture to understanding the meaning behind images it creates and a high level of sophistication, like this rare sea otter with a mohican.

With the new wave of hyper-realistic video generation tools, it's going to get harder to spot real imagery from generated. These AI influencers doing impossible challenges make about as much sense as any social trend right now.